Apps & Tools · Educational risk model
Baseball Upside Risk
Explain how public baseball base rates produce a zero-heavy gross-earnings distribution and a rare upside tail without predicting a named player.
For: Families of high-school and NCAA baseball players seeking a sober view of the professional earnings path.
This static preview collects no player profile, name, school, email address, payment, or report request.
This frozen B-GERM snapshot was generated May 14, 2026. It uses 2024-25 participation inputs and 2025 draft inputs; it is not a live 2026 probability estimate.
Mean and median
The median is $0. The mean is pulled upward by a rare tail.
The median describes the middle of this broad-cohort distribution. With 99.509% of simulated runs ending at $0, that middle outcome is $0 in gross professional baseball earnings.
The deterministic mean gross payoff is $27,201 across the cohort. A small number of high-earning paths pull that average upward, so it is tail-sensitive—not a typical outcome and not a forecast for a named player.
- Snapshot
- May 14, 2026
- Cohort
- Broad U.S. high-school-senior baseball cohort
- Simulation
- 1,000,000 fixed-seed draws
- Seed
- 20260512
- Terminal paths
- 14
- Earnings basis
- Gross professional baseball earnings only
How it works
From a broad cohort to a readable risk distribution
The method follows public base rates through mutually exclusive career paths, then reads the middle, the average, and the rare upside tail together.
- 01
Define the cohort
Begin with a broad U.S. high-school-senior baseball cohort rather than a named player or recruiting profile.
- 02
Trace 14 paths
Follow mutually exclusive paths through draft, signing, MLB reach, and gross professional earnings outcomes.
- 03
Simulate outcomes
Run the book-locked model for one million draws with the fixed seed used for the May 14, 2026 snapshot.
- 04
Interpret together
Read the median, mean, zero mass, pathway rates, and rare upside tail as one cohort-level record.
Model views
Seven ways to inspect the frozen baseline
Draft pathway
The modeled share of the broad cohort that is selected in the professional draft.
Signing pathway
The modeled share that signs a professional baseball contract after the draft pathway.
MLB pathway
The modeled share that reaches Major League Baseball within the frozen pathway structure.
Earnings distribution
The zero mass, median, deterministic mean, and rare gross-earnings tail viewed together.
Terminal paths
Fourteen mutually exclusive outcomes that account for the full modeled cohort.
Assumptions
A fixed snapshot built from approximate participation denominators and explicit gross-earnings boundaries.
Sources
Official NCAA, NFHS, MLB, and MLBPA materials support the participation, pathway, rules, and earnings assumptions.
Use boundaries
A cohort model, not an individual forecast
- Educational cohort-level analysis only. It is not scouting, recruiting, scholarship, player-development, financial, tax, legal, investment, medical, or career advice.
- Not a prediction about a named player. Individual circumstances, ability, health, development, opportunity, and decisions are not modeled here.
- Gross professional baseball earnings only. The figures exclude taxes, agent fees, training, travel, showcases, lessons, scholarships, name, image, and likeness (NIL) income, family spending, and non-baseball opportunity costs.
- The frozen model uses approximate participation denominators and incomplete evidence for earnings in the lower parts of professional baseball careers.
- Independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by Major League Baseball, the Major League Baseball Players Association, the NCAA, the NFHS, any club, school, player, or recruiting service.
Companion publication
Long Shots in the Big League
Baseball, Gross Earnings, and the Arithmetic of Risk
Companion publication in preparation
The book covers the history, records, and arithmetic behind the model.