Essay Date 2025-08-12 Version 1.0 Edition First web edition

It’s tough to weigh short term costs against what people perceive as low probability events.


It’s tough to weigh short term costs against what people perceive as low probability events.

Kind of a different thing, but the way our country has let the national debt get out of hand is a similar symptom of short term thinking and discounting long term costs / unlikely but extremely costly consequences.

Part of the problem is the disconnect between technical analysts and decision makers… its unclear whether the Kerr County emergency management office actually employed anyone with technical expertise in risk management / emergency preparedness based on their website

https://kerrcountytx.gov/kerr-county-all-departments/emergency-management#gsc.tab=0

From the sheriffs website ~ description of Kerr County Emergency Coordinator and volunteer team of first responders

“W.B. “Dub” Thomas, Emergency Management Coordinator/Deputy Sheriff for Kerr County and the City of Ingram

Graduated from Sam Houston State with a BS degree in Criminal Justice and Police Science in 1982.
Previous employment: Texas Department of Public Safety, Highway Patrol Service from 1985 until 2010. Retired as Texas Highway Patrol Lieutenant.

Responsible for 7 Sergeant Areas with 70 Troopers, 6 K-9’s, admin staff, Presidential Security at the Western Whitehouse, RADAR and Laser Instructor as well as recruit school instructor.

Graduate of Northwestern University Traffic Institute School of Police Staff and Command. District Disaster Chairman for DPS Region 4A while stationed in El Paso and was the Assistant District Disaster Chair for Region 6A while stationed in Waco responsible for the state response for disasters in the district.

Career duty stations include Freer, Hillsboro, San Angelo, El Paso and Waco. Responsible for the state response in District 6A for the space shuttle Columbia disaster, District 6A response to Hurricane Katrina, deployed to the Beaumont district office to coordinate the state response to Hurricane Rita and the District 6A response to Hurricane Ike. Participated in numerous disaster drills in conjunction with the Comanche Peak Nuclear facility.

January 2014-October 2015: Disaster Program Specialist for the Hill Country Chapter of the American Red Cross. Responsible for assisting 18 counties with preparedness, response and recovery plans and operations during disasters. Responsible for the implementation of American Red Cross initiatives in 18 counties.

KERR COUNTY SHERIFF’S OFFICE CERT (Community Emergency Response Team)

A volunteer group that will work to assist and support the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office. This group consists of citizens who have received the 20 hour basic CERT training class. This group will also attend in-service training periodically to remain refreshed on the knowledge acquired during this training.”


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(Acknowledging that rural counties shouldn’t be expected to have professional risk managers/emergency management professionals in their office)

Without someone who understands the technical language used by FEMA and (sometimes) NWS it’s not too surprising that the effort to build that siren warning system failed since it seemed too expensive for what the community perceived as a low risk situation.

Tragic.