Russia’s Slow Surrender: How China is Turning Putin’s War into a Power Play

Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine has significantly altered its geopolitical and economic landscape, pushing it closer to China in ways that threaten its sovereignty.

The key factor in determining Russia’s future is how long the war continues.The longer Russia remains entangled in the conflict, the deeper its dependence on China will become, making it increasingly difficult for Moscow to break free from Beijing’s grip.

China, in turn, has every incentive to ensure the war drags on, as it weakens both Russia and the West while strengthening Beijing’s leverage over its so-called partner.

Economic Dependence: The Noose Tightens

Western sanctions have isolated Russia from the global economy, forcing it to rely on China as a financial and trade lifeline.

In the immediate aftermath of sanctions, China provided a crucial escape hatch, increasing trade with Russia to a record $240 billion in 2023. But this lifeline comes at a cost — one that only grows the longer the war continues.

Europe, once Russia’s primary buyer, has largely moved on, forcing Moscow to sell more oil to China — at steep discounts.China’s record-high oil imports from Russia in 2024 (108.5 million metric tons) make Russia its top supplier.

However, China doesn’t depend on them for oil, gas, or really anything.

Russian crude accounts for less than 20% of China’s total imports, meaning Moscow has little leverage to negotiate better terms.

Unlike Russia, China enjoys diverse energy sources, ensuring that the dependence is one-sided — further strengthening Beijing’s bargaining position.

This imbalance underscores China’s leverage in the relationship — Russia needs China more than China needs Russia.Beyond energy, China has also moved into Russia’s auto and tech industries.

Chinese automakers, led by Great Wall Motors and Chery, now control 57% of the Russian market, while Chinese firms dominate the supply of smartphones, IT services, and industrial machinery.

What began as a pragmatic partnership is turning into one of economic entrapment, with China steadily outcompeting Russian firms.

Military and Strategic Dependence: A War That Benefits China

Russia’s military reliance on China has grown significantly.While Beijing avoids direct arms sales, it sustains Moscow’s war effort by supplying dual-use technology, including navigation systems, jet fighter components, and drone parts.

Estonian intelligence reports that China is the primary conduit for smuggling critical Western drone components into Russia, ensuring uninterrupted production.

Although China officially calls for peace, its actions suggest otherwise.

Beijing carefully balances diplomatic rhetoric while strengthening its strategic ties with Moscow.Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin recently reaffirmed their strong bilateral relationship, signaling that despite China’s diplomatic rhetoric, it remains a key enabler of Russia’s resilience in the conflict.

Beijing benefits from a prolonged war: it weakens both Russia and the West while expanding China’s global influence with minimal effort.The conflict diverts U.S. and European resources to Ukraine, limiting their ability to counter China in the Pacific.

Meanwhile, Moscow’s growing dependence ensures an asymmetric partnership — one where Beijing dictates the terms.

The Longer the War, the Tighter China’s Grip

Russia is not yet a Chinese vassal state, but it is moving in that direction.

If Moscow secures a swift end to the war, it may still reclaim some independence.

But with each passing month, its reliance on China deepens, narrowing its ability to act autonomously.

At some point, Russia may no longer have a way out.Its economy will be fully embedded in China’s supply chains, its industries dependent on Chinese investment, and its military reliant on Beijing’s technology.

By then, Moscow will have little choice but to align with China — no longer an equal, but a junior partner.

Putin’s war, meant to restore Russian strength, may instead ensure Moscow’s future as a client state of Beijing.

About the Author

Lawton is an economist who writes about markets, policy, and the forces shaping American life. His essays blend historical insight with data-driven analysis, covering everything from trade wars and inflation to labor markets and financial bubbles.

When he isn’t writing essays, he’s making music, cooking food, and hanging out with his cat, Boudin.

Read more of his work on Medium.

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