The Morning After

The café served breakfast until noon. At eleven forty-five, a waitress began replacing the menus on the empty tables.

Prince played through a speaker above the bar. Oliver was trying to open a packet of butter. Syd had pushed his plate aside to make room for his phone.

A young couple sat in the next booth. The woman had both hands around a glass of water.

SydThis is a wild sentence.

OliverRead it.

Syd“Deep-pocketed U.S. tech firms compete with governments for investors’ capital.”

Oliver abandoned the butter packet.

OliverYup. Pretty wild.

SydCountries. They’re competing with countries.

OliverTrue though. The so-called hyperscalers have raised a staggering amount of cash during the AI boom. For data centers and whatnot.

SydAnd whatnot.

OliverI’m not reading you a prospectus.

SydIs there any analogue from history for this?

OliverHmm. Not sure. Certainly no perfect analogy.

Syd passed him a knife.

OliverThe massive productivity boom in the nineties? From new technologies.

SydProducing what? Software mostly, I think.

OliverBut that was fundamentally different. The U.S. more or less had a balanced budget at the time. Last balanced federal budget was 1999, I think.

SydPoetic.

OliverThe budget?

Syd pointed toward the speaker. Oliver listened.

OliverOh. Right.

SydPrince was the goat.

OliverTruly.

The waitress passed with a tray of Bloody Marys. A celery stalk brushed the back of Oliver’s head.

“Sorry.”

OliverThat’s all right.

Syd waited until she was gone.

SydYou’ve got something in your hair.

Oliver put a hand up.

SydNo. You’re fine.

OliverThank you.

At the next table, the young woman leaned forward.

“For whatever it’s worth, he is a human just like the rest of us and he has regrets.”

The young man nodded.

“He really admires you,” she added.

“There’s no need for any hard feelings! Everything’s good,” he said.

“I know! Just putting it out there.”

A blender started behind the bar. Oliver moved his plate away from the edge of the table.

OliverThe Industrial Revolution and the agricultural revolution are also far from perfect analogies. Some similarities. A bunch of key differences.

SydClosest thing to the data centers is the railroads and maybe U.S. Steel.

OliverYeah. That makes sense.

SydBut U.S. Steel wasn’t competing with Europe for bond sales. I don’t think.

OliverKeep the last part attached to that.

SydI guess the initial deal was pretty big between J.P. Morgan and Carnegie.

OliverA massive deal. But you’re still talking about a different situation. A much smaller federal government.

SydI know. I’m trying to find something close.

OliverClose in what way?

SydSomething being built that changes everything around it. So much money going into it that you start wondering who’s actually in charge.

Oliver took a bite of toast.

OliverThose are two different questions.

SydThey seem related.

OliverThey might be. Which one bothers you?

Syd looked down at the sentence again.

SydI think the tech companies are de facto more powerful than the U.S. federal government.

OliverMore powerful at doing what?

SydGetting something done. ’Cause they have unified purposes within their organizations.

OliverAnd the government is supposed to have whose purpose?

SydOurs, presumably.

OliverYours and mine?

SydThat would simplify things.

OliverWe couldn’t agree where to eat.

SydYet here we are.

OliverYou followed me inside.

SydStrong leadership.

Oliver reached for his coffee.

OliverI’m serious. They might find it easier to agree because they’re trying to do fewer things for fewer people. That doesn’t settle which one is more powerful.

SydYeah. Good point. But knowing what you want ought to count for something.

OliverIt does. What do they want?

He moved his cup so Syd could pull his plate back toward him.

SydThat purpose being the profit motive, I guess, ultimately.

OliverThat does help narrow it down.

SydI don’t know. I think Musk has a compelling vision. Not sure what Bezos actually wants for humanity other than making life easier and more convenient.

OliverAnd making boatloads of money.

SydWhich, like, fair enough.

OliverFair enough, I suppose.

Syd cut into his eggs.

SydI like the idea, but it gives me big WALL-E vibes.

OliverYou don’t like convenience?

SydI love convenience. That’s what worries me.

OliverYou could still get out of the chair.

SydIt’s a very good chair.

OliverThen I suppose you’ll have to decide whether you want to get up.

SydI’d prefer a less demanding future.

Oliver laughed into his cup.

For a while they ate. The waitress carried a stack of lunch menus past them and stopped to take an order at the bar. The couple’s voices had dropped beneath the music.

OliverI don’t know what I think is going to happen.

SydI think the party keeps going.

OliverFor now.

SydExactly.

OliverThat covers a lot of ground.

SydI’m leaving myself room.

OliverI noticed.

Syd checked the time on his phone.

SydOnly way out is a jubilee.

OliverWell. We shall see.

SydA bond market, real estate, and population crash. About twenty years out.

Oliver put down his cup.

OliverThat’s what you’re calling a jubilee?

SydNot much of a celebration, I guess.

OliverYou think all three together?

SydI can imagine them going together. I don’t know what starts it.

OliverOr when.

SydThat’s why I said “about.”

OliverThat little word is working pretty hard.

SydIt’s carrying the whole forecast.

Oliver laughed. Syd pushed his phone farther from his plate.

OliverWhat happens to the people who were counting on being paid?

SydIn the crash?

OliverIn the jubilee. Whatever we’re calling it.

SydI don’t suppose they’ll like the name either.

OliverNo.

SydI’m not proposing it. I’m trying to picture what happens when people can’t keep their promises.

OliverSome can’t. Some won’t.

SydDoesn’t look much different to the person waiting.

Oliver turned his cup on its saucer.

The waitress returned with the coffee pot.

“Still doing all right?”

OliverYes, thank you.

Syd held his cup out too. She filled both and went back to the bar.

SydYou think we just keep going?

OliverI think people keep trying things. Some of them might work. We’ve given the crash twenty years. That’s a long time for nothing else to happen.

SydFair point.

OliverYou were interested in what gets built five minutes ago.

SydI still am. I don’t think that part stops.

Oliver pulled a piece of crust loose from his toast.

OliverBut yeah. I think the party keeps going for a while. Beyond the current bond turbulence.

SydSo we agree.

OliverAbout the party continuing. Not necessarily the rest of your itinerary.

SydFine.

OliverIt’s been quite a party. Gonna be a hell of a hangover.

SydI think we’re already in the hangover.

OliverAlready?

SydSince around ’07, ’08.

OliverHa. You could be right.

SydIt’s the morning after and we’re pounding Bloody Marys.

Oliver looked toward the bar. The woman who had ordered the tray was picking an olive off a skewer. Her friends were trying to get everyone into a photograph.

OliverThey do look pretty happy.

SydI’m sure they are.

The music stopped between songs. A chair scraped near the door.

“I just want you to know how loved and appreciated you are,” the young woman said.

“Thanks! I appreciate you too.”

She let go of the water glass.

“It’s all love from my people. If it’s not that vibe from your people, hopefully I can earn it back someday.”

The young man set down his fork.

“You are my people.”

Oliver had picked up his coffee. He held it for a moment, then looked back across the table.

Syd raised his own cup.

SydBottoms up.

Oliver touched his cup to Syd’s.